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Permutations in Europe: What’s still at stake in final weeks of season?


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Four of Europe’s top leagues crowned their champions with plenty of time to spare, but there’s still much to play for as we head into the final two weeks of the domestic seasons. With the continent’s top tiers all barreling toward a conclusion, here’s what’s left to be decided across the biggest leagues.

Note: This story will be updated weekly until the end of the season.

Premier League 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Stuart MacFarlane / Arsenal FC / Getty

Title race

What was once a three-team battle is a two-horse race going into the final day of the season, as Liverpool’s untimely slump left Arsenal and Manchester City in a straight scrap. The Gunners are seeking their first league title in 20 years but may be powerless to stop Pep Guardiola’s men, who’ll secure an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League crown by winning their final match Sunday at home to West Ham United.

Even if Arsenal beat Everton in their last match, it may not be enough for them to end City’s dynastic run.

If Arsenal win and Man City draw, Mikel Arteta’s side will win the title on goal difference.

Club GP GD Points
1. Man City 37 +60 88
2. Arsenal 37 +61 86

European qualification

The Premier League was unable to net an additional Champions League place for next season, so only the top four can qualify. Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa have sealed those spots.

Fifth place will be rewarded with a Europa League berth.

The remaining European places are dependent, in part, on the outcome of the FA Cup final. If Manchester United win the trophy, they automatically go to the Europa League. If Manchester City beat their rivals in a second consecutive final and retain the silverware, that Europa League spot then transfers to the sixth-placed finisher in the league.

Club GP GD Points
5. Tottenham 37 +10 63
6. Chelsea 37 +13 60
7. Newcastle 37 +21 57
8. Manchester United 37 -3 57

Though Tottenham’s Champions League hopes flatlined with five losses in six matches, they are still in control of the battle for fifth, and close out their season against already-relegated Sheffield United.

A late-season surge has put Chelsea right in the mix for a European place.

The aforementioned FA Cup outcome will also play a role in deciding the Europa Conference League (UECL) representative. If Man City are victorious, the UECL berth will go to the team that finishes seventh in the table.

Relegation and promotion

The fight for survival is nearly over. Sheffield United, with just three wins from 37 games and a Premier League-record 101 goals conceded, are heading back to the Championship a year after getting promoted. Vincent Kompany’s Burnley are going down with them.

To avoid joining them, Luton Town need to beat Fulham on the last day of the season and hope Nottingham Forest lose by a significant margin against Burnley. The Hatters’ vastly inferior goal difference means they need a minor miracle to survive the drop.

Club GP GD Points
17. Nottingham Forest 37 -19 29
18. Luton 37 -31 26
19. Burnley 37 -36 24
20. Sheffield United 37 -66 16

Leicester City and Ipswich Town grabbed the two automatic promotion places from the Championship; the Foxes are making an immediate return, while the Tractor Boys are going back to the top flight after a 22-year absence.

The always thrilling promotion playoffs will decide the last team to make the jump. Leeds United and Southampton will meet in the playoff final on May 26.

La Liga 🇪🇸

Florencia Tan Jun / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Title race

Real Madrid were crowned Spanish champions for a record-extending 36th time.

European qualification

Real Madrid and Barcelona are assured of Champions League spots. They’ll be joined, incredibly, by Girona, whose Cinderella season will yield a first-ever berth in the competition. Michel’s team clinched the spot by defeating Barca. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, sealed a 12th consecutive appearance in the Champions League this week.

Athletic’s Copa del Rey triumph, combined with the fact that they’re almost certain to finish in the top six, means La Liga’s Europa League places should go to the fifth- and sixth-placed finishers in the table. The team that finishes seventh will head to the Conference League.

Club GP GD Points
5. Athletic Club 36 +21 62
6. Real Sociedad 36 +12 57
7. Real Betis 36 +5 56
8. Villarreal 36 0 51

Relegation and promotion

Almeria picked up just their second win of the season earlier this month, but it was too little, too late. They’ve been relegated along with Granada, whose fate was confirmed hours before a 4-0 loss to Madrid.

Several other teams are still in danger of going down, too, with Cadiz in the most precarious spot of that bunch despite two straight wins. Their meeting with Las Palmas this weekend will be vital.

Club GP GD Points
14. Las Palmas 36 -14 38
15. Rayo Vallecano 36 -15 38
16. Celta Vigo 36 -12 37
17. Mallorca 36 -12 36
18. Cadiz 36 -24 32
19. Granada 36 -33 21
20. Almeria 36 -37 17

Nobody has secured promotion from the second tier as of yet, but Valladolid, Leganes, and Eibar are in pole position.

Bundesliga 🇩🇪

picture alliance / picture alliance / Getty

Title race

Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen, whose historic season-long unbeaten run currently stands at 51 matches across all competitions, clinched their first-ever Bundesliga title weeks ago. They also became the first team in Bundesliga history to complete an undefeated domestic season by winning their final league match of the campaign against Augsburg on Sunday.

European qualification

The Bundesliga earned an extra Champions League spot for next season, meaning five teams will compete in the 2024-25 event. Leverkusen will be joined by Stuttgart, Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, and Borussia Dortmund.

There’s still intrigue here, though. If Dortmund, who finished fifth, win the Champions League, the sixth-placed finisher in the Bundesliga will also head to the tournament next year. That scenario, once farfetched, is very much in play after Edin Terzic’s men upset PSG to reach the Champions League final, where they’ll play Real Madrid on June 1.

The identity of Germany’s two Europa League entrants will be dictated, in part, by the DFB-Pokal final on May 25, where Leverkusen will take on a Kaiserslautern side that’s mired in a relegation battle … in the second tier. Should they pull off the stunning upset, they’ll earn one of Germany’s Europa League berths, while the other will go to Eintracht Frankfurt, the Bundesliga’s sixth-placed finisher.

If Leverkusen win, the Europa places go to the sixth- and seventh-placed finishers. Hoffenheim, who finished seventh, would be the big beneficiary in that scenario.

At present, the seventh-placed team will make the Conference League, but the DFB-Pokal final result could bump that berth down to Heidenheim, who just pipped Werder Bremen and Freiburg to eighth place.

Each of the clubs mentioned above will be Leverkusen fans on May 25.

Relegation and promotion

The bottom two in the 18-team Bundesliga are relegated automatically, while the squad that finishes 16th enters a playoff against the third-placed finisher from the 2. Bundesliga.

Darmstadt were sent packing long before the final day of the season. FC Koln joined them Sunday.

There was incredible drama on the final day, as Union Berlin, who went into Sunday’s action in 16th place, scored a 92nd-minute winner against Freiburg to leap up to 15th and avoid the relegation playoff. Bochum, who lost 4-1 to Werder Bremen, dropped down to 16th, and will contest a two-legged playoff against Fortuna Dusseldorf.

Club GP GD Points
14. Monchengladbach 34 -11 34
15. Union Berlin 34 -25 33
16. Bochum 34 -32 33
17. Koln 34 -32 27
18. Darmstadt 34 -56 17

Holstein Kiel will play in the Bundesliga for the first time in club history next season, with St. Pauli joining them.

Serie A 🇮🇹

Francesco Scaccianoce / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Title race

Inter Milan, the dominant force in Italy this year, clinched their 20th Scudetto with last month’s win over city rivals AC Milan.

European qualification

Just like Germany, Italy also earned an extra Champions League place for next season, so at least five teams will qualify. Both Milanese clubs punched their tickets early. Bologna’s fairy-tale campaign culminated with a Champions League place; the club hasn’t featured in the event in the modern era, last appearing in the European Cup in 1964. Despite an abysmal run in 2024, Juventus secured a spot, too, and will return to European competition after a one-year hiatus.

That leaves Atalanta, Roma, and Lazio to battle for fifth place. Atalanta took full control of the race with a vital win over Roma in their last league match.

Club GP GD Points
5. Atalanta 36 +28 66
6. Roma 36 +19 60
7. Lazio 36 +10 59
8. Fiorentina 36 +13 54
9. Napoli 37 +7 52

Serie A could yet send six teams to the Champions League if Atalanta win the Europa League. For that to happen, La Dea will need to do something nobody else has accomplished this season: beat Bayer Leverkusen. They meet in the Europa League final on May 22.

If Gian Piero Gasperini’s men do that and finish outside the top four, sixth in the league could be enough to qualify for the Champions League.

With Fiorentina set to play in the Conference League final against Olympiacos on May 29, there is a scenario in which Serie A could send nine teams to European competitions next season, as outlined by Dale Johnson of ESPN:

Relegation and promotion

The bottom three sides go down to Serie B. Salernitana, who have just two wins all season, have been relegated. Two Serie A mainstays could yet join them. Sassuolo, despite beating Inter twice this season, are in serious danger of seeing their 11-year run in the top flight come to an end. Meanwhile, Udinese, who have been in the top division since 1995 and have made several appearances in Europe in that time, are on their third manager of the campaign as they look to avoid a shocking relegation. With matches against fellow relegation battlers Empoli and Frosinone to close out the year, Udinese, now coached by Fabio Cannavaro, control their fate.

Club GP GD Points
14. Verona 36 -14 34
15. Udinese 36 -17 33
16. Cagliari 36 -27 33
17. Frosinone 36 -25 32
18. Empoli 36 -26 32
19. Sassuolo 36 -30 29
20. Salernitana 36 -48 16

Iconic Italian outfit Parma and Como, the ambitious club from the picturesque city that counts Thierry Henry and Cesc Fabregas as minority shareholders, have already secured promotion back to Serie A. Venezia, Cremonese, and Palermo are in the semifinals of the promotions playoffs. One of Catanzaro or Brescia will join them.

Ligue 1 🇫🇷

CHRISTOPHE SIMON / AFP / Getty

Title race

Paris Saint-Germain were crowned Ligue 1 champions for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons, claiming a record-extending 12th French title in the process.

European qualification

Ligue 1, unlike its peers on this list, only gets three automatic Champions League places, while the fourth-placed finisher goes into the qualifying stage of the tournament. Monaco will join PSG at Europe’s top table next season.

Going into this weekend’s final round of fixtures, Lille and Brest are battling to finish third; Lille host Nice, who were just eliminated from Champions League contention this week, while Brest visit Toulouse.

Club GP GD Points
3. Lille 33 +18 58
4. Brest 33 +16 58
5. Nice 33 +11 54
6. Lens 33 +8 50
7. Lyon 33 -7 50
8. Marseille 33 +10 47
9. Rennes 33 +8 46

Currently, fifth place in Ligue 1 will go to the Europa League, while finishing sixth will be rewarded with a Conference League spot. That could change if PSG win the Coupe de France, though; they’re in the final against Lyon on May 25, and victory for the capital-based outfit will see the league’s sixth-place finisher jump into the Europa League.

That cup final will also have a direct impact on France’s Conference League spot, which could yet go to the seventh-place finisher.

Relegation and promotion

The bottom two finishers in Ligue 1 are relegated automatically, while the team that ends in 16th place heads to a promotion-relegation playoff.

Clermont Foot have been relegated. Lorient are hanging on by a thread, while Metz, who finish the season by hosting PSG, will likely enter the playoff.

Club GP GD Points
15. Le Havre 33 -10 32
16. Metz 33 -21 29
17. Lorient 33 -28 26
18. Clermont Foot 33 -29 25

Auxerre, who were relegated last season, ensured an immediate return to the French top flight by clinching the Ligue 2 title. Angers finished second to join them in making the leap, while Saint-Etienne will go to the promotion playoff.





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